Analysis of interaction of risk damage in the case of technogenic accidents in the concept of acceptable risk

DOI №______

Abstract

The methods of estimating the damage from the occurrence of an industrial accident considered. For the quantitative description of the consequences of an accident, the notion of damage is used, which is considered as an estimated, economic value, which is represented in value terms. The assessment of a loss involves determining its value in kind or in monetary terms. When considering the consequences of an accident, direct, indirect, complete, general and distorted damage is taken into account. The direct damage from an accident is determined by the cost of restoring the situation that existed prior to its occurrence. As an estimation of indirect damage an expert assessment in shares of direct damage is used without detail and analysis of individual components. The value of the distorted damage can justify the measures taken and evaluate the cost effectiveness of them. The description of the module of the expert system of risk analysis for the estimation of socio-economic losses from the occurrence of the technological disaster presented. It is emphasized the special importance of considering distributions in time or distant manifestations of damage for accidents related to the action on components of the environment. Use to manage technological risks of set values of acceptable and unacceptable risks will allow: firstly, gradually level the level of technogenic safety on the territory of the country, reducing their spread, which is important from the point of view of social justice; secondly, to raise the safety level of the country population life in whole country by pulling-up less safe regions to the level of security in other more prosperous regions.

Keywords: technogenic accident, damage estimation, distribution function, risk map, acceptable risk, statistical method.

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