Creation of a computer model of influenza epidemics development on the basis of the statistical data laws analysis

DOI №______

Abstract

The success of medicine depends on the progress of information technology, in particular decision support systems that use computer models to predict the effects of medical management decisions. The purpose of the study is to identify the main dependencies of the development of influenza epidemics in Ukraine according to statistical data. The waves of the epidemic in the country as a whole are identified as the sum of individual waves in different cities. The qualitative similarity of the pattern of development of epidemics in different years was revealed. The physiological, weather and other factors of influence are analyzed.
The most appropriate S-shaped logistic model for the development of the epidemic is identified. The logistic dependence of the degree of adaptation of persons to new weather conditions is established. The Stype dependence of the growth of the anti-epidemic effect has been determined. Numerical simulation allows you to predict the level of the epidemic, depending on the value of the parameters. It is important to timely identify the moment of the beginning of the different stages of the epidemic and to quickly determine the peculiarities of the dynamics of the current epidemic in order to construct an optimal counteraction strategy. The simulation is done in the MatLab software environment. The transition to logistic ordinary differential equations in finite increments and the replacement of finite sum integration were performed. Modeling results are consistent with statistical data. The main practical benefit of simulation is the bell-like dependence of the number of infected persons. By the amplitude of this dependence determine the level of danger of the epidemic. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the emergence of the epidemic are identified.

Key words: model, forecast, management decision, epidemic, information technologies in medicine.

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