Method of risk assessment in decision-making to develop an automated air traffic control system under uncertainty

DOI: 10.31673/2412-4338.2020.041625

Abstract

This article provides an overview of the methods used in practice to assess the risks that arise in the process of designing automated air traffic control systems. The classification of risks and possible negative consequences of risks are determined. Based on this analysis, it is concluded that in order to increase the success of the design process, risk management tools are needed, including the accumulation of risk management experience for its further use. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment model for the development of automated air traffic control systems based on explicit and implicit expertise, including an analysis of situations in which risk processing is required. With the emergence of fundamentally new automated systems, the problem of risk assessment of design as a strategic direction of automation and intellectualization of relevant processes in various fields of science and technology. Note that in this context, the concept of automated systems includes such concepts as "complex phenomena", "complex technological processes", "complex systems", including the person himself, which is considered as an element responsible for the generation, storage and use of knowledge. The peculiarity of modern automated systems is that they operate in conditions given, as a rule, by a finite set of quantitative and non-quantitative (verbal) variables and corresponding constraints. At the same time, many risk assessment tasks are formed and described both verbally in the professional language of this field of knowledge, and formally using different classes of models. The proposed method of risk assessment of the development of ACS by air traffic is based on production rules, which provides the opportunity to accumulate and use the experience of overcoming the risks of the project, and thus increases the success of the project.

Key words: automated control system, design, development, air traffic, risk management.

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