DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONCEPT OF PREDICTING THE START TIME OF A DDOS ATTACK BASED ON THE STUDY OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF EVOLUTIONARY EQUATIONS

DOI: 10.31673/2412-4338.2024.012644

Abstract

The modern information space is formed by networks of complex technical systems of interconnected devices and devices that exchange information and resources. They are the fundamental basis for many modern technologies, including the Internet, data networks, social networks, etc. An undeniable prerequisite for ensuring the stability of modern information systems against unauthorized access in general and DDoS attacks in particular is the implementation of the concept of proactive protection. This means that cybersecurity measures must be implemented before a data breach or attack occurs. The paper analyzes the current state and approaches to detecting cyber threats for information systems of corporate networks, provides a classification of cyber threats and describes the anatomy of DDoS attacks. The work examines the anatomy of DDoS-attacks and methods of countering DDoS-attacks, which allow effective protection of the information network, as well as against attacks by intruders. A mathematical apparatus for identifying cyberthreats and determining strategies for minimizing the risks of unauthorized access by attackers to network information resources has been developed, which is based on the methods of the qualitative theory of systems of differential equations with impulse action. Using the methods of the phase plane, the peculiarities of the behavior of complex systems are studied, the mathematical models of which are represented by systems of differential equations with impulse. Constructive conditions of stability and asymptotic stability of the SIR-model, which is a mathematical model of network vulnerability due to aggressive actions of attackers, have been obtained. The conditions for minimizing the vulnerabilities of network elements through the implementation of various strategies for reducing the number of infected devices have been established: the strategy of "permanent vaccination", the strategy of "pulse vaccination" and the periodic case of implementing the concept of updating and updating software to counter DDoS attacks. It was established that the threat resistance of the network is inversely proportionally determined by the ratio of the vulnerability rate of devices in the network to the lost and restored devices, and an estimate of the software update period for protection against cyber threats was obtained.

Keywords: cyber-attack, DDoS attack, botnet, SIR model, stability, cyber-attack strategy.

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